S8/10Geopolitical
Steep rise in civilian casualties in Russia-Ukraine war, UN says
Increasing use of long-range missiles and drones against targets far from the front line is worsening the civilian toll.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days
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