S6/10Geopolitical
Ukraine to get ‘license’ for making Patriot interceptors, Trump pledges
"It’s a defensive weapon, which I like better than an offensive weapon,” Trump said. Russian media quickly picked up on the announcement.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Эскалация— 42% model probability
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Horizon: 7–30 days