Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Russia escalates its military operations in Ukraine by deploying more advanced weaponry and increasing troop deployments in occupied territories. This leads to increased tensions with NATO, prompting a response from Western powers including sanctions or military aid for Ukraine. The attacks on infrastructure become more frequent and targeted, potentially leading to escalation of conflict between Russia and Ukraine. * Increased reports of Russian missile launches near Ukrainian borders. * Public statements from NATO members regarding increased military support for Ukraine. * Russia's annexation of additional territories in Ukraine. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The attack on infrastructure in occupied areas remains a point of tension, but without significant (80% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Russia escalates its military operations in Ukraine by deploying more advanced weaponry and increasing troop deployments in occupied territories. This leads to increased tensions with NATO, prompting a response from Western powers including sanctions or military aid for Ukraine. The attacks on infrastructure become more frequent and targeted, potentially leading to escalation of conflict between Russia and Ukraine. * Increased reports of Russian missile launches near Ukrainian borders. * Public statements from NATO members regarding increased military support for Ukraine. * Russia's annexation of additional territories in Ukraine. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The attack on infrastructure in occupied areas remains a point of tension, but without significant (14% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Russia escalates its military operations in Ukraine by deploying more advanced weaponry and increasing troop deployments in occupied territories. This leads to increased tensions with NATO, prompting a response from Western powers including sanctions or military aid for Ukraine. The attacks on infrastructure become more frequent and targeted, potentially leading to escalation of conflict between Russia and Ukraine. * Increased reports of Russian missile launches near Ukrainian borders. * Public statements from NATO members regarding increased military support for Ukraine. * Russia's annexation of additional territories in Ukraine. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The attack on infrastructure in occupied areas remains a point of tension, but without significant (5% model probability, not a guarantee)

Drones strike occupied parts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and Crimea: power plant, oil depot and railway hit

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators