S7/10Natural

Ethiopia's ruling party secures 90% of votes in national election

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party won a landslide victory in legislative polls, giving it almost 90 percent of the seats. Abiy has led Ethiopia since 2018, and is increasingly criticised for growing authoritarianism. Northern Tigray, still recovering from a devastating 2020-22 conflict that claimed 600,000 lives, did not vote. Growing tensions between local and federal authorities have raised fears of a renewed conflict.

23 Jun 2026, 13:54 UTCSource: France24Original source

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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Эскалация45% model probability

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Confirmation indicators

  • Increased military presence in Tigray: Reports of increased troop deployments and logistical activity within the region. Public statements from Abiy Ahmed expressing strong stance on Tigrayan demands: Statements indicating a hardening of position, potentially escalating tensions further. Sporadic clashes between federa
Horizon: 7–30 days