Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Zelensky's decision to name a military unit after the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA) triggers a diplomatic crisis with Poland, leading to public statements denouncing the move and potential sanctions. This escalates into direct military action by Polish forces in response to perceived threats from the UPA-inspired unit. * Confirmation Indicators: 1) Public condemnation of Zelensky's decision by Poland’s government; 2) Increased activity of Polish border patrols near Ukrainian borders. * Time Horizon: 7-14 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The situation remains tense but stable with both sides avoiding further escalation, focusing on diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions and maintain communication channels. This includes increased bilateral meetings and a joint statement by the Ukraini (70% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Zelensky's decision to name a military unit after the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA) triggers a diplomatic crisis with Poland, leading to public statements denouncing the move and potential sanctions. This escalates into direct military action by Polish forces in response to perceived threats from the UPA-inspired unit. * Confirmation Indicators: 1) Public condemnation of Zelensky's decision by Poland’s government; 2) Increased activity of Polish border patrols near Ukrainian borders. * Time Horizon: 7-14 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The situation remains tense but stable with both sides avoiding further escalation, focusing on diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions and maintain communication channels. This includes increased bilateral meetings and a joint statement by the Ukraini (22% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Zelensky's decision to name a military unit after the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA) triggers a diplomatic crisis with Poland, leading to public statements denouncing the move and potential sanctions. This escalates into direct military action by Polish forces in response to perceived threats from the UPA-inspired unit. * Confirmation Indicators: 1) Public condemnation of Zelensky's decision by Poland’s government; 2) Increased activity of Polish border patrols near Ukrainian borders. * Time Horizon: 7-14 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The situation remains tense but stable with both sides avoiding further escalation, focusing on diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions and maintain communication channels. This includes increased bilateral meetings and a joint statement by the Ukraini (8% model probability, not a guarantee)

Why Zelensky’s celebration of WWII-era nationalist guerrillas is causing tension with Poland

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators