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S5/10Economic

Brussels fires starting gun on tougher China trade policy, as Beijing vows retaliation

The European Commission agreed on a tough new approach to trade relations with China, at a rare Beijing-focused debate among Brussels’ leadership on Friday.

In a presentation, trade chief Maros Sefcovic laid out why the bloc needed to take stronger steps to defend itself from what is described as a new “China shock” to its industries, according to people briefed on the event.

This may require developing a new instrument to compel companies in critical sectors to expand both the number and the...

Source: South China Morning Post

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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation

Here are three scenarios based on the provided data:

Horizon: 7–30 days
B
Status quo

Here are three scenarios based on the provided data:

Horizon: 7–30 days
C
De-escalation

Here are three scenarios based on the provided data:

Horizon: 7–30 days

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