Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: The EAEU initiates free trade negotiations with Tunisia, leading to heightened diplomatic engagement between the two nations and potentially a joint statement on economic cooperation. This could result in increased investment from both sides, particularly in sectors like agriculture and technology. * Confirmation Indicators: A public announcement of the official start of the negotiation process by the EAEU. The Tunisian government announces specific investments from the EAEU in key sectors. * Time Horizon: 60 days to 2 months Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Baseline: The EAEU continues its efforts to expand preferential agreements, but negotiations with Tunisia are not prioritized or progress is slow due to complex political and economic factors. * Confirmation Indicators: The EAEU publishes (12% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: The EAEU initiates free trade negotiations with Tunisia, leading to heightened diplomatic engagement between the two nations and potentially a joint statement on economic cooperation. This could result in increased investment from both sides, particularly in sectors like agriculture and technology. * Confirmation Indicators: A public announcement of the official start of the negotiation process by the EAEU. The Tunisian government announces specific investments from the EAEU in key sectors. * Time Horizon: 60 days to 2 months Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Baseline: The EAEU continues its efforts to expand preferential agreements, but negotiations with Tunisia are not prioritized or progress is slow due to complex political and economic factors. * Confirmation Indicators: The EAEU publishes (64% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: The EAEU initiates free trade negotiations with Tunisia, leading to heightened diplomatic engagement between the two nations and potentially a joint statement on economic cooperation. This could result in increased investment from both sides, particularly in sectors like agriculture and technology. * Confirmation Indicators: A public announcement of the official start of the negotiation process by the EAEU. The Tunisian government announces specific investments from the EAEU in key sectors. * Time Horizon: 60 days to 2 months Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Baseline: The EAEU continues its efforts to expand preferential agreements, but negotiations with Tunisia are not prioritized or progress is slow due to complex political and economic factors. * Confirmation Indicators: The EAEU publishes (24% model probability, not a guarantee)

EAEU to begin free trade zone negotiations with Tunisia — EEC Head

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators