S9/10Geopolitical
Russia-Ukraine war: First half of 2026 sees sharp rise in civilian casualties
The first six months of 2026 saw a steep rise in the number of civilians killed or wounded in the war between Russia and Ukraine, the UN said Tuesday. Both Moscow and Kyiv have increased the number of air strikes targeting vital infrastructure as the Russian invasion grinds into its fifth year.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 80% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days