S8/10Geopolitical
Ukraine suffers port attacks as protests persist over defence shake-up
Russian attacks reportedly kill two Ukrainians aboard foreign vessel in Mykolaiv; two more killed in Kherson and Odesa.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days
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