S5/10Economic
Has the worst of the Hormuz crisis passed?
Ships are moving again through the Strait of Hormuz, with oil prices falling. But relief for consumers may take longer.
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 29% model probability
Сценарии event-driven intelligence
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Increase in military activity near Strait of Hormuz. Reports from regional sources indicating increased naval patrols and drills by major powers in the region. Public statements from Iranian officials expressing strong opposition to international shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. This could include threats or warnings
- ◆60 days after the
Horizon: 0–60 days