S8/10Geopolitical
No direct condemnation from UN of Ukrainian terrorist attacks against Russia — diplomat
Anna Yevstigneyeva recalled that the UN Secretary-General had issued two condemnations of Russian strikes allegedly targeting civilian infrastructure in Ukraine over the past week
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 61% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days