S8/10Military
Ukraine’s attack on Iranian ship in Caspian Sea expands geography of terror — diplomat
Maria Zakharova stressed that the Caspian Sea should be free from any military incidents and remain a zone of peace, good neighborliness and cooperation
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Эскалация
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Horizon: 7–30 days
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