S6/10Geopolitical
If it disarms, Hamas would 'take away Israel's rationale' to occupy Gaza
Hamas said on July 31 it agreed to a deal to end the war with Israel that included provisions addressing its weapons and the gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip. US President Donald Trump announced the plan, calling it a critical step towards a new Palestinian government in Gaza. But what would that mean for the region, is it all that simple and why is it coming now? FRANCE 24's Matthew-Mary Caruchet tells us more.
Click a tag to subscribe via email/Telegram (manage channels in Account).
⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days
Exact probability, cascade chain, and confirmation indicators unlock for approved members.
Checking access status…