S6/10Geopolitical
Washington kicking Kiev Patriot license is bargaining ploy — Russian MP
According to Konstantin Basyuk, even if the license is transferred immediately, setting up full-scale production, training specialists, and establishing component supplies will take a long time
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Эскалация— 34% model probability
Сценарии event-driven intelligence
Horizon: 7–30 days