Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: The Kursk incident leads to increased tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Ukrainian troops are accused of targeting civilians in retaliation for Russian actions, further escalating the conflict. This triggers a series of military deployments by both sides, including increased troop movements near the border. * Confirmation Indicators: * Increased frequency of reports from independent sources regarding alleged civilian casualties in the Kursk region. * A formal statement from NATO accusing Russia of violating international law and escalating the conflict. * Time Horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Baseline Scenario: The Kursk incident is initially reported as a localized attack, with limited global impact. The incident becomes a focal point for diplomatic efforts to de-esca (81% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: The Kursk incident leads to increased tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Ukrainian troops are accused of targeting civilians in retaliation for Russian actions, further escalating the conflict. This triggers a series of military deployments by both sides, including increased troop movements near the border. * Confirmation Indicators: * Increased frequency of reports from independent sources regarding alleged civilian casualties in the Kursk region. * A formal statement from NATO accusing Russia of violating international law and escalating the conflict. * Time Horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Baseline Scenario: The Kursk incident is initially reported as a localized attack, with limited global impact. The incident becomes a focal point for diplomatic efforts to de-esca (14% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: The Kursk incident leads to increased tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Ukrainian troops are accused of targeting civilians in retaliation for Russian actions, further escalating the conflict. This triggers a series of military deployments by both sides, including increased troop movements near the border. * Confirmation Indicators: * Increased frequency of reports from independent sources regarding alleged civilian casualties in the Kursk region. * A formal statement from NATO accusing Russia of violating international law and escalating the conflict. * Time Horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Baseline Scenario: The Kursk incident is initially reported as a localized attack, with limited global impact. The incident becomes a focal point for diplomatic efforts to de-esca (5% model probability, not a guarantee)

Kursk Region woman describes surviving violent attack by Ukrainian troops

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators