Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% - Chain: Ebola outbreak expands rapidly due to inadequate containment measures and limited infrastructure in the region. Chinese medical team struggles with local logistics, leading to delays in treatment and further spread. - Confirmation indicators: Increased reports of new cases in DRC media, significant increase in mortality rates within a specific timeframe (e.g., 20% increase in deaths in the first two weeks). - Time horizon: 14 days to 3 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% - Chain: Chinese medical team works alongside local authorities, implementing containment measures and providing basic treatment. The outbreak stabilizes with support from international organizations and the Chinese government. - Confirmation indicators: Increased media coverage of Chinese medical team's efforts in DRC, a noti (42% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% - Chain: Ebola outbreak expands rapidly due to inadequate containment measures and limited infrastructure in the region. Chinese medical team struggles with local logistics, leading to delays in treatment and further spread. - Confirmation indicators: Increased reports of new cases in DRC media, significant increase in mortality rates within a specific timeframe (e.g., 20% increase in deaths in the first two weeks). - Time horizon: 14 days to 3 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% - Chain: Chinese medical team works alongside local authorities, implementing containment measures and providing basic treatment. The outbreak stabilizes with support from international organizations and the Chinese government. - Confirmation indicators: Increased media coverage of Chinese medical team's efforts in DRC, a noti (42% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% - Chain: Ebola outbreak expands rapidly due to inadequate containment measures and limited infrastructure in the region. Chinese medical team struggles with local logistics, leading to delays in treatment and further spread. - Confirmation indicators: Increased reports of new cases in DRC media, significant increase in mortality rates within a specific timeframe (e.g., 20% increase in deaths in the first two weeks). - Time horizon: 14 days to 3 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% - Chain: Chinese medical team works alongside local authorities, implementing containment measures and providing basic treatment. The outbreak stabilizes with support from international organizations and the Chinese government. - Confirmation indicators: Increased media coverage of Chinese medical team's efforts in DRC, a noti (16% model probability, not a guarantee)