Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Here are three scenarios based on the provided event trigger and cascade analysis data: Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% In the next 14 days, a meeting between EU energy ministers will be convened to discuss the proposed ban on gas imports from Russia, leading to a vote on the proposal in late June. If the ban is passed, it may lead to a significant increase in natural gas prices in Europe. 1. Confirmation of EU energy minister meeting by TASS English. 2. Increase in natural gas prices in Europe (as reported by Bloomberg). 3. EU Parliament's approval of the proposed ban on June 25th. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% The proposed ban on gas imports from Russia will be put on hold indefinitely due to concerns over its economic impact, leading to a continued reliance on Russian gas for European energy needs. Confi (36% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Here are three scenarios based on the provided event trigger and cascade analysis data: Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% In the next 14 days, a meeting between EU energy ministers will be convened to discuss the proposed ban on gas imports from Russia, leading to a vote on the proposal in late June. If the ban is passed, it may lead to a significant increase in natural gas prices in Europe. 1. Confirmation of EU energy minister meeting by TASS English. 2. Increase in natural gas prices in Europe (as reported by Bloomberg). 3. EU Parliament's approval of the proposed ban on June 25th. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% The proposed ban on gas imports from Russia will be put on hold indefinitely due to concerns over its economic impact, leading to a continued reliance on Russian gas for European energy needs. Confi (47% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Here are three scenarios based on the provided event trigger and cascade analysis data: Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% In the next 14 days, a meeting between EU energy ministers will be convened to discuss the proposed ban on gas imports from Russia, leading to a vote on the proposal in late June. If the ban is passed, it may lead to a significant increase in natural gas prices in Europe. 1. Confirmation of EU energy minister meeting by TASS English. 2. Increase in natural gas prices in Europe (as reported by Bloomberg). 3. EU Parliament's approval of the proposed ban on June 25th. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% The proposed ban on gas imports from Russia will be put on hold indefinitely due to concerns over its economic impact, leading to a continued reliance on Russian gas for European energy needs. Confi (17% model probability, not a guarantee)