S9/10Geopolitical
Iran rejects Hormuz deal and launches surprise strike on US forces in Jordan
Tehran rejected an Omani proposal to divide the strait equally and declared Hormuz would "never return to its prewar situation," hours before the IRGC launched multiple ballistic missiles at US forces in Jordan in what CENTCOM called an attempted surprise attack.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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