S6/10Geopolitical
Rushdi Abualouf: If Hamas disarmament plan holds, it could mark first credible step to ending Gaza war
While the plan is progress, it was met with little enthusiasm by Palestinians let down by many years of collapsed agreements.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Horizon: 7–30 days
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