Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: US Treasury Department sanctions Oman's financial institutions and individuals directly involved in facilitating tolls for the Strait of Hormuz. The US imposes a travel ban on key Omani officials, including diplomats, and restricts access to US markets for Omani businesses. * Confirmation Indicators: The US Treasury publishes a list of sanctioned entities and individuals, and Oman's central bank reports a significant decline in foreign currency reserves. * Time Horizon: 10-30 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The US and Iran engage in indirect negotiations to reach an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz tolls, with Oman acting as a mediator. The US maintains pressure on Oman through diplomatic channels, but avoids direct military action or sanctions. * Confirmation Indicators: Public s (64% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: US Treasury Department sanctions Oman's financial institutions and individuals directly involved in facilitating tolls for the Strait of Hormuz. The US imposes a travel ban on key Omani officials, including diplomats, and restricts access to US markets for Omani businesses. * Confirmation Indicators: The US Treasury publishes a list of sanctioned entities and individuals, and Oman's central bank reports a significant decline in foreign currency reserves. * Time Horizon: 10-30 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The US and Iran engage in indirect negotiations to reach an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz tolls, with Oman acting as a mediator. The US maintains pressure on Oman through diplomatic channels, but avoids direct military action or sanctions. * Confirmation Indicators: Public s (26% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: US Treasury Department sanctions Oman's financial institutions and individuals directly involved in facilitating tolls for the Strait of Hormuz. The US imposes a travel ban on key Omani officials, including diplomats, and restricts access to US markets for Omani businesses. * Confirmation Indicators: The US Treasury publishes a list of sanctioned entities and individuals, and Oman's central bank reports a significant decline in foreign currency reserves. * Time Horizon: 10-30 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The US and Iran engage in indirect negotiations to reach an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz tolls, with Oman acting as a mediator. The US maintains pressure on Oman through diplomatic channels, but avoids direct military action or sanctions. * Confirmation Indicators: Public s (10% model probability, not a guarantee)

US threatens to ‘aggressively’ target Oman if it facilitates tolls for Hormuz

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators