Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: The outbreak rapidly spreads due to limited access to healthcare facilities and poor sanitation in conflict zones. Armed groups exploit the chaos for territorial gains, exacerbating humanitarian crises and hindering access for aid workers. The WHO struggles to maintain control over infected individuals, leading to a surge in deaths and further fueling public panic. * Significant increase in reported Ebola cases within 10 days. * Reports of armed groups seizing control of key healthcare facilities within 2 weeks. * A spike in humanitarian aid appeals for access to affected areas within 3 weeks. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The outbreak is contained through a combination of rapid response efforts by the WHO and local authorities, combined with increased international s (66% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: The outbreak rapidly spreads due to limited access to healthcare facilities and poor sanitation in conflict zones. Armed groups exploit the chaos for territorial gains, exacerbating humanitarian crises and hindering access for aid workers. The WHO struggles to maintain control over infected individuals, leading to a surge in deaths and further fueling public panic. * Significant increase in reported Ebola cases within 10 days. * Reports of armed groups seizing control of key healthcare facilities within 2 weeks. * A spike in humanitarian aid appeals for access to affected areas within 3 weeks. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The outbreak is contained through a combination of rapid response efforts by the WHO and local authorities, combined with increased international s (25% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: The outbreak rapidly spreads due to limited access to healthcare facilities and poor sanitation in conflict zones. Armed groups exploit the chaos for territorial gains, exacerbating humanitarian crises and hindering access for aid workers. The WHO struggles to maintain control over infected individuals, leading to a surge in deaths and further fueling public panic. * Significant increase in reported Ebola cases within 10 days. * Reports of armed groups seizing control of key healthcare facilities within 2 weeks. * A spike in humanitarian aid appeals for access to affected areas within 3 weeks. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The outbreak is contained through a combination of rapid response efforts by the WHO and local authorities, combined with increased international s (9% model probability, not a guarantee)

Ebola outbreak in DR Congo collides with conflict and hunger, WHO warns

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators