S9/10Geopolitical

Iran: Is Trump “Bored”?, Bolivia at “Breaking point” A Spanish Scandal

It’s been a week where, 90 days into the conflict and ceasefire stand-off with Iran, both Tehran and Washington are insisting time is on their side — each claiming the other needs a deal more urgently. Pressure is growing on the Trump administration with soaring energy prices and midterm elections approaching, while Iran is reportedly losing huge oil revenues with tankers backed up in port. Reports suggested a temporary agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was close, before the US struck Iran’s southern coast, calling it self-defence against mine-laying boats and drone launch sites. Tehran threatened retaliation, US bases in Kuwait were targeted within hours, and talks over a wider deal continue tonight.

29 May 2026, 19:45 UTCSource: France24

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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation73% model probability

Confirmation indicators

  • Reports of increased military activity near US naval bases in the Persian Gulf.
  • Confirmation of Iranian drone attacks on US assets within 72 hours.
  • Escalation of rhetoric from both sides regarding preemptive strikes.
Horizon: 7–30 days
B
Status quo20% model probability

Confirmation indicators

  • Reports of increased military activity near US naval bases in the Persian Gulf.
  • Confirmation of Iranian drone attacks on US assets within 72 hours.
  • Escalation of rhetoric from both sides regarding preemptive strikes.
Horizon: 7–30 days
C
De-escalation7% model probability

Confirmation indicators

  • Reports of increased military activity near US naval bases in the Persian Gulf.
  • Confirmation of Iranian drone attacks on US assets within 72 hours.
  • Escalation of rhetoric from both sides regarding preemptive strikes.
Horizon: 7–30 days