Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Armed groups in eastern DRC reject Tedros's call for ceasefire, escalating violence and hindering aid delivery. The outbreak spreads due to increased conflict-related trauma and reduced access to healthcare facilities. This leads to a surge in fatalities, potentially exceeding 300 by the end of June 2026. * Confirmation indicators: Reports of renewed fighting between armed groups and government forces, significant decline in aid delivery into eastern DRC, and an increase in confirmed Ebola cases per week. * Time horizon: 4-8 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: The WHO manages to secure a ceasefire agreement between armed groups and the DRC government, enabling continued aid delivery and medical support. The outbreak remains contained within the initial affected areas, with efforts focusin (65% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Armed groups in eastern DRC reject Tedros's call for ceasefire, escalating violence and hindering aid delivery. The outbreak spreads due to increased conflict-related trauma and reduced access to healthcare facilities. This leads to a surge in fatalities, potentially exceeding 300 by the end of June 2026. * Confirmation indicators: Reports of renewed fighting between armed groups and government forces, significant decline in aid delivery into eastern DRC, and an increase in confirmed Ebola cases per week. * Time horizon: 4-8 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: The WHO manages to secure a ceasefire agreement between armed groups and the DRC government, enabling continued aid delivery and medical support. The outbreak remains contained within the initial affected areas, with efforts focusin (25% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Armed groups in eastern DRC reject Tedros's call for ceasefire, escalating violence and hindering aid delivery. The outbreak spreads due to increased conflict-related trauma and reduced access to healthcare facilities. This leads to a surge in fatalities, potentially exceeding 300 by the end of June 2026. * Confirmation indicators: Reports of renewed fighting between armed groups and government forces, significant decline in aid delivery into eastern DRC, and an increase in confirmed Ebola cases per week. * Time horizon: 4-8 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: The WHO manages to secure a ceasefire agreement between armed groups and the DRC government, enabling continued aid delivery and medical support. The outbreak remains contained within the initial affected areas, with efforts focusin (9% model probability, not a guarantee)