Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) - 50% * Chain: Armenia's membership in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) leads to increased trade with Russia, potentially triggering retaliatory measures from other EAEU members against Armenia. This could escalate into a diplomatic standoff between Armenia and its neighbors, impacting regional stability. * Confirmation Indicators: * Increased rhetoric or military exercises by neighboring countries targeting Armenia. * Evidence of sanctions imposed on Armenian businesses by EAEU member states (e.g., restrictions on imports/exports). * Time Horizon: 1-3 months Scenario B (Status Quo) - 38% * Chain: Armenia's access to the EAEU market is implemented smoothly, with minimal disruption to trade flows and economic relations. Armenia benefits from increased trade opportunities, potentially leading to a posit (31% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) - 50% * Chain: Armenia's membership in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) leads to increased trade with Russia, potentially triggering retaliatory measures from other EAEU members against Armenia. This could escalate into a diplomatic standoff between Armenia and its neighbors, impacting regional stability. * Confirmation Indicators: * Increased rhetoric or military exercises by neighboring countries targeting Armenia. * Evidence of sanctions imposed on Armenian businesses by EAEU member states (e.g., restrictions on imports/exports). * Time Horizon: 1-3 months Scenario B (Status Quo) - 38% * Chain: Armenia's access to the EAEU market is implemented smoothly, with minimal disruption to trade flows and economic relations. Armenia benefits from increased trade opportunities, potentially leading to a posit (50% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) - 50% * Chain: Armenia's membership in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) leads to increased trade with Russia, potentially triggering retaliatory measures from other EAEU members against Armenia. This could escalate into a diplomatic standoff between Armenia and its neighbors, impacting regional stability. * Confirmation Indicators: * Increased rhetoric or military exercises by neighboring countries targeting Armenia. * Evidence of sanctions imposed on Armenian businesses by EAEU member states (e.g., restrictions on imports/exports). * Time Horizon: 1-3 months Scenario B (Status Quo) - 38% * Chain: Armenia's access to the EAEU market is implemented smoothly, with minimal disruption to trade flows and economic relations. Armenia benefits from increased trade opportunities, potentially leading to a posit (19% model probability, not a guarantee)

У Армении теперь есть доступ к большому, развитому рынку ЕАЭС — Путин

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