S8/10Geopolitical
West has no Ukrainian conflict resolution plan, only ultimatums — diplomat
According to him, Ukraine’s terrorist attacks against Russian civilians will end only after the conflict is over, with Russia victorious
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days
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