S6/10Geopolitical
FirstFT: China releases Christian pastor after Trump raised his case with Xi
Also in today’s newsletter: Wall Street banks recover in China and Ukrainian drone strikes spur Russian fuel crisis
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days
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