Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Russia escalates attacks in Zaporizhzhia, targeting critical infrastructure like power plants and water facilities. This triggers retaliatory strikes from Ukraine against Russian-held territories. The escalation could lead to a broader conflict involving NATO members. * Confirmation indicators: Increased military activity near the border with Ukraine and escalating rhetoric from both sides. * Time horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: The attack on Zaporizhzhia is met with diplomatic efforts by international organizations to deescalate tensions. Ukraine may receive increased military aid from Western allies, but no significant escalation occurs. * Confirmation indicators: Increased diplomatic pressure and negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. * Time horizon: 1-4 wee (79% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Russia escalates attacks in Zaporizhzhia, targeting critical infrastructure like power plants and water facilities. This triggers retaliatory strikes from Ukraine against Russian-held territories. The escalation could lead to a broader conflict involving NATO members. * Confirmation indicators: Increased military activity near the border with Ukraine and escalating rhetoric from both sides. * Time horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: The attack on Zaporizhzhia is met with diplomatic efforts by international organizations to deescalate tensions. Ukraine may receive increased military aid from Western allies, but no significant escalation occurs. * Confirmation indicators: Increased diplomatic pressure and negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. * Time horizon: 1-4 wee (16% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Russia escalates attacks in Zaporizhzhia, targeting critical infrastructure like power plants and water facilities. This triggers retaliatory strikes from Ukraine against Russian-held territories. The escalation could lead to a broader conflict involving NATO members. * Confirmation indicators: Increased military activity near the border with Ukraine and escalating rhetoric from both sides. * Time horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: The attack on Zaporizhzhia is met with diplomatic efforts by international organizations to deescalate tensions. Ukraine may receive increased military aid from Western allies, but no significant escalation occurs. * Confirmation indicators: Increased diplomatic pressure and negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. * Time horizon: 1-4 wee (6% model probability, not a guarantee)