S6/10Social
Beirut hopes to gain Trump support to bring 'normality' back to south Lebanon
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun is set to meet with his US counterpart Donald Trump in Washington on July 21, as Beirut's military moved into an area of the south under a deal with Israel to disarm Hezbollah. The pilot 'safe zones' comses as Lebanon is under pressure to prove that it can and will disarm Iran-backed Hezbollah, which Israel has set as a precondition for ending its occupation in southern Lebanon. FRANCE 24's Renée Davis tells us more from Beirut.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Эскалация— 31% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days