S8/10Geopolitical
Iranian regime still standing three months after Khamenei’s death
The United States and Iran appeared closer on Thursday to a deal extending the ceasefire. The day also marked exactly three months since the United States and Israel killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei — the event that triggered the war. To discuss where Iran stands three months later, FRANCE 24’s Nadia Massih is joined by Dr. Ahou Koutchesfahani, a scholar specialising in Iran and international relations.
29 May 2026, 16:24 UTCSource: France24
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 68% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆1) Public statements by IRGC officials challenging sanctions and threatening action. 2) Increased activity of Iranian naval vessels near US
- ◆controlled waters.
- ◆Time Horizon: Within 7 days, escalating to full
- ◆scale conflict within 2 weeks.
Horizon: 7–30 days
B
Status quo— 23% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆1) Public statements by IRGC officials challenging sanctions and threatening action. 2) Increased activity of Iranian naval vessels near US
- ◆controlled waters.
- ◆Time Horizon: Within 7 days, escalating to full
- ◆scale conflict within 2 weeks.
Horizon: 7–30 days
C
De-escalation— 9% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆1) Public statements by IRGC officials challenging sanctions and threatening action. 2) Increased activity of Iranian naval vessels near US
- ◆controlled waters.
- ◆Time Horizon: Within 7 days, escalating to full
- ◆scale conflict within 2 weeks.
Horizon: 7–30 days