Axelrod's Oracle
S9/10Geopolitical

Oil prices rebound as markets watch war on Iran

Oil prices rebound as markets watch war on Iran Oil prices recovered some of their steep losses from earlier in the week on Thursday, while US stocks remained close to record highs as major companies continued reporting strong profits. The S&P 500 slipped 0.1 percent from the all-time high it reached a day earlier. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 219 points, or 0.4 percent, by 9:35am Eastern time, while the Nasdaq composite dropped 0.2 percent after both indexes also hit record levels the previous day. Markets appeared less sensitive to swings in oil prices even as crude climbed following renewed tensions in the US war on Iran. US Central Command said Kuwait intercepted missiles launched by Iran late on Wednesday, after earlier “defensive” US strikes on missile launch sites and minelaying boats in southern Iran.

28 May 2026, 16:05 UTCSource: Middle East Eye

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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 88% model probability
Did not materialise

Confirmation indicators

  • ◆Confirmed reports of Iranian missile strikes against US military facilities in Iraq or Kuwait.
  • ◆The US administration publicly announces the commencement of airstrikes on Iran's key infrastructure (e.g., oil refineries).
  • ◆A significant spike in global stock market volatility and a sharp decline in risk
  • ◆on assets like cryptocurrencies.
Horizon: 7–14 days
B
Status quo— 9% model probability
Did not materialise

Confirmation indicators

  • ◆Confirmed reports of Iranian missile strikes against US military facilities in Iraq or Kuwait.
  • ◆The US administration publicly announces the commencement of airstrikes on Iran's key infrastructure (e.g., oil refineries).
  • ◆A significant spike in global stock market volatility and a sharp decline in risk
  • ◆on assets like cryptocurrencies.
Horizon: 7–14 days
C
De-escalation— 4% model probability
Did not materialise

Confirmation indicators

  • ◆Confirmed reports of Iranian missile strikes against US military facilities in Iraq or Kuwait.
  • ◆The US administration publicly announces the commencement of airstrikes on Iran's key infrastructure (e.g., oil refineries).
  • ◆A significant spike in global stock market volatility and a sharp decline in risk
  • ◆on assets like cryptocurrencies.
Horizon: 7–14 days