Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Russia's overspending on the war in Ukraine triggers heightened tensions with Western powers, leading to increased sanctions and military aid for Ukraine from NATO allies. This escalation could result in direct conflict between Russia and NATO countries within a few weeks, escalating into a full-scale war. * Confirmation Indicators: Public statements from high-level officials of the US, UK, or EU about potential military intervention by NATO to defend Ukraine. Increased deployment of Russian military assets near the Ukrainian border. * Time Horizon: Within 2-4 weeks. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: Russia's overspending on the war in Ukraine leads to a tense standoff with Western powers, prompting negotiations for financial aid and diplomatic solutions. The conflict continues with limited es (72% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Russia's overspending on the war in Ukraine triggers heightened tensions with Western powers, leading to increased sanctions and military aid for Ukraine from NATO allies. This escalation could result in direct conflict between Russia and NATO countries within a few weeks, escalating into a full-scale war. * Confirmation Indicators: Public statements from high-level officials of the US, UK, or EU about potential military intervention by NATO to defend Ukraine. Increased deployment of Russian military assets near the Ukrainian border. * Time Horizon: Within 2-4 weeks. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: Russia's overspending on the war in Ukraine leads to a tense standoff with Western powers, prompting negotiations for financial aid and diplomatic solutions. The conflict continues with limited es (20% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Russia's overspending on the war in Ukraine triggers heightened tensions with Western powers, leading to increased sanctions and military aid for Ukraine from NATO allies. This escalation could result in direct conflict between Russia and NATO countries within a few weeks, escalating into a full-scale war. * Confirmation Indicators: Public statements from high-level officials of the US, UK, or EU about potential military intervention by NATO to defend Ukraine. Increased deployment of Russian military assets near the Ukrainian border. * Time Horizon: Within 2-4 weeks. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: Russia's overspending on the war in Ukraine leads to a tense standoff with Western powers, prompting negotiations for financial aid and diplomatic solutions. The conflict continues with limited es (8% model probability, not a guarantee)

Russia overspends on Putin’s war in Ukraine by $28bn

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators