S9/10Geopolitical
Russia bans oil exports as Ukraine strikes cause fuel shortages
On July 8, Russia imposed a ban on diesel exports in response to widespread domestic gasoline and diesel supply issues caused by ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure by Kiev. Ukraine has also been striking ships, as part of a new strategy to bring the war back to Russia by increasing the pain experienced across the Russian economy in an effort to push them to the negotiating table.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 78% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days