S6/10Geopolitical
Lithuanian defence minister: Putin needs new victory and is eyeing Baltics and Poland
As Russia is unable to achieve victory in its war against Ukraine, the Kremlin is seeking an alternative path to victory and now views the Baltic region and Poland as its most likely next targets.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days
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