S9/10Geopolitical
Ukraine fires 400 drones at Moscow as Russia steps up ballistic missile attacks
Ukraine's latest attack follows a weekend of escalating exchanges between the two sides, with Russia targeting Kyiv with ballistic missiles on Sunday and Ukraine hitting warehouses outside of Moscow on Saturday.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 80% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days