S6/10Geopolitical
Lukashenko says Belarus will not join Putin’s war in Ukraine
Kyiv feared that Moscow was pressuring its closest ally to support war effort
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 40% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days