S8/10Geopolitical
Oil Jumps as US and Iran Trade Strikes, Dispute Hormuz Status
Oil jumped as the US and Iran exchanged fresh strikes, with the sides offering conflicting statements on whether the Strait of Hormuz remains open to shipping.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days
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