S5/10Economic
Trump orders probe as oil prices stay high
The US president earlier claimed that around 19 million barrels of oil exited the Strait of Hormuz on June 22
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 29% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Increased military activity in the Strait of Hormuz: Satellite imagery reveals increased naval patrols and drills by Iranian vessels near the Strait. US sanctions on Iran's oil exports: The US Treasury Department announces new sanctions targeting key Iranian oil companies, further restricting their ability to export cr
- ◆20 days Effect: Tensions between the US and Iran es
Horizon: 0–20 days