Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: US-Guatemala relations deteriorate rapidly. The US imposes sanctions on Guatemala's government and military leaders. The President of the United States issues a public statement threatening further action if Guatemala does not cooperate fully with US counter-narcotics operations. Guatemala responds by expelling all US diplomats and increasing border security measures. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: US and Guatemalan governments continue to engage in diplomatic efforts, with limited progress. The US expresses continued concern about drug trafficking in Guatemala but acknowledges t (73% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: US-Guatemala relations deteriorate rapidly. The US imposes sanctions on Guatemala's government and military leaders. The President of the United States issues a public statement threatening further action if Guatemala does not cooperate fully with US counter-narcotics operations. Guatemala responds by expelling all US diplomats and increasing border security measures. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: US and Guatemalan governments continue to engage in diplomatic efforts, with limited progress. The US expresses continued concern about drug trafficking in Guatemala but acknowledges t (20% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: US-Guatemala relations deteriorate rapidly. The US imposes sanctions on Guatemala's government and military leaders. The President of the United States issues a public statement threatening further action if Guatemala does not cooperate fully with US counter-narcotics operations. Guatemala responds by expelling all US diplomats and increasing border security measures. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: US and Guatemalan governments continue to engage in diplomatic efforts, with limited progress. The US expresses continued concern about drug trafficking in Guatemala but acknowledges t (7% model probability, not a guarantee)

Guatemala denies agreeing to US strikes against drug traffickers

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators