S6/10Geopolitical
China’s Pacific SLBM Test Signals a New Phase in Undersea Nuclear Competition
The test, likely involving the JL-3 and coming just after the United States’ 250th Independence Day, underscored China's increasingly credible sea-based nuclear deterrent.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 42% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days