S6/10Geopolitical
Ukraine's air defences destroy 114 out of 137 drones launched by Russia overnight
Ukraine's air defences intercepted 114 out of 137 Russian Shahed and other drones launched during an overnight attack.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 44% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days