S5/10Economic
UKMTO: Maritime access restrictions enforced on Iranian ports
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency said on Monday it has been informed that effective from 1400 UTC on Monday, maritime access restrictions are being enforced affecting Iranian ports and coastal areas, including locations along the Gulf, Gulf of Oman and Strait of Hormuz.
13 Apr 2026, 13:33 UTCSource: CGTN World
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 27% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆1) Public statements of further sanctions by the UK government, 2) Increased media coverage of escalating tensions between the UK and Iran, 3) A significant drop in the volume of international shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz.
Horizon: 28–56 days
B
Status quo— 53% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆1) Public statements of further sanctions by the UK government, 2) Increased media coverage of escalating tensions between the UK and Iran, 3) A significant drop in the volume of international shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz.
Horizon: 28–56 days
C
De-escalation— 20% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆1) Public statements of further sanctions by the UK government, 2) Increased media coverage of escalating tensions between the UK and Iran, 3) A significant drop in the volume of international shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz.
Horizon: 28–56 days