S8/10Geopolitical
Why limited war with the US may suit Iran better than peace
Iran may believe it can control its conflict carefully enough to keep pressure on the US while avoiding an all-out war.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days
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