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IN BRIEF: Belarus tips Poland off about plot to attack opposition figure’s children
According to the former operative of Belarus’ State Security Committee, the attack was being planned by former journalist Denis Dashkevich, a member of the Belarusian opposition
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days
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