Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: US-Iran negotiations stall, leading to renewed sanctions and heightened geopolitical tensions. This triggers increased risk aversion in global markets, causing a sharp sell-off across sectors, particularly energy and defense stocks. * Confirmation indicators: US Treasury Secretary's public statement expressing concerns over Iran's nuclear program and the UN Security Council voting on new sanctions against Iran. * Time horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The US and Iran continue negotiations, and a preliminary agreement is reached, leading to a temporary easing of tensions. This creates a positive sentiment in global markets, resulting in sustained gains across sectors, particularly technology and renewable energy stocks. * Confirmation indicators: Announcement of a frame (12% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: US-Iran negotiations stall, leading to renewed sanctions and heightened geopolitical tensions. This triggers increased risk aversion in global markets, causing a sharp sell-off across sectors, particularly energy and defense stocks. * Confirmation indicators: US Treasury Secretary's public statement expressing concerns over Iran's nuclear program and the UN Security Council voting on new sanctions against Iran. * Time horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The US and Iran continue negotiations, and a preliminary agreement is reached, leading to a temporary easing of tensions. This creates a positive sentiment in global markets, resulting in sustained gains across sectors, particularly technology and renewable energy stocks. * Confirmation indicators: Announcement of a frame (64% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: US-Iran negotiations stall, leading to renewed sanctions and heightened geopolitical tensions. This triggers increased risk aversion in global markets, causing a sharp sell-off across sectors, particularly energy and defense stocks. * Confirmation indicators: US Treasury Secretary's public statement expressing concerns over Iran's nuclear program and the UN Security Council voting on new sanctions against Iran. * Time horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The US and Iran continue negotiations, and a preliminary agreement is reached, leading to a temporary easing of tensions. This creates a positive sentiment in global markets, resulting in sustained gains across sectors, particularly technology and renewable energy stocks. * Confirmation indicators: Announcement of a frame (24% model probability, not a guarantee)