S8/10Geopolitical
US and Iran reach tentative deal to extend ceasefire, US officials say
But there has been conflicting information from Tehran, with one news agency reporting that no deal has been finalised or confirmed.
28 May 2026, 20:28 UTCSource: BBC World
Click a tag to subscribe via email/Telegram (manage channels in Account).
⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 60% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆Increased military activity on both sides of the border (e.g., naval exercises, air patrols), Iranian officials publicly criticizing US actions and threatening retaliation, escalation of rhetoric from both governments.
Horizon: 10–20 days
B
Status quo— 29% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆Increased military activity on both sides of the border (e.g., naval exercises, air patrols), Iranian officials publicly criticizing US actions and threatening retaliation, escalation of rhetoric from both governments.
Horizon: 10–20 days
C
De-escalation— 11% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆Increased military activity on both sides of the border (e.g., naval exercises, air patrols), Iranian officials publicly criticizing US actions and threatening retaliation, escalation of rhetoric from both governments.
Horizon: 10–20 days