Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: China's space program becomes increasingly assertive in its global ambitions. Increased tensions with the US and other nations regarding space exploration, resource extraction, and military capabilities lead to a series of diplomatic confrontations and increased military exercises. This escalates into a direct confrontation over an international space station or satellite launch. * Confirmation Indicators: China's space agency announces a new lunar base program with aggressive timelines, followed by the US government issuing a statement condemning these actions as "unacceptable" and threatening sanctions. China responds with increased military activity near disputed territories in the South China Sea. * Time Horizon: 60 days to 3 months Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The landing at the former (74% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: China's space program becomes increasingly assertive in its global ambitions. Increased tensions with the US and other nations regarding space exploration, resource extraction, and military capabilities lead to a series of diplomatic confrontations and increased military exercises. This escalates into a direct confrontation over an international space station or satellite launch. * Confirmation Indicators: China's space agency announces a new lunar base program with aggressive timelines, followed by the US government issuing a statement condemning these actions as "unacceptable" and threatening sanctions. China responds with increased military activity near disputed territories in the South China Sea. * Time Horizon: 60 days to 3 months Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The landing at the former (19% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: China's space program becomes increasingly assertive in its global ambitions. Increased tensions with the US and other nations regarding space exploration, resource extraction, and military capabilities lead to a series of diplomatic confrontations and increased military exercises. This escalates into a direct confrontation over an international space station or satellite launch. * Confirmation Indicators: China's space agency announces a new lunar base program with aggressive timelines, followed by the US government issuing a statement condemning these actions as "unacceptable" and threatening sanctions. China responds with increased military activity near disputed territories in the South China Sea. * Time Horizon: 60 days to 3 months Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The landing at the former (7% model probability, not a guarantee)

Chinese astronauts land safely in former top secret nuclear missile test site

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators