S9/10Geopolitical
Trump threatens to bomb Tehran back for every Iranian attack in Hormuz
The US president said Washington would destroy one piece of civilian infrastructure — including sites near Tehran — each time Iran fires on a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, as the war entered its 11th consecutive day of US strikes.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days
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