S9/10Geopolitical
Middle East war rekindles as US and Iran resume strike exchange
The United States and Iran continued to trade blows for a sixth day on July 16, as the foes battled over the vital Strait of Hormuz, despite a call from mediator Pakistan to resume talks. The renewed fighting and US blockade of Iranian ports came a month after a preliminary deal was signed that aimed to end the conflict. Since last week, the renewed US attacks have killed at least 30 people in Iran, according to its government.
Click a tag to subscribe via email/Telegram (manage channels in Account).
⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 73% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days