S9/10Geopolitical
Trump says new Iran talks set to start on Monday after calling off massive attack
Washington and Tehran have been at war since 28 February, when the US and Israel launched surprise strikes against Iran, though months of on-off diplomacy have led to periods of relative calm.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days
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