Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Colombia's government implements austerity measures to reduce debt, leading to cuts in social programs and increased poverty levels. This triggers protests from citizens demanding the reversal of these policies. These protests escalate into nationwide demonstrations, potentially disrupting economic activity. * Significant increase in public protests against government policies. * Media coverage highlighting rising unemployment rates and declining living standards. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The Colombian government focuses on finding a balance between debt reduction and social programs, implementing targeted reforms to increase economic growth while maintaining essential services. This approach leads to a gradual improvement in poverty levels without drastic ch (29% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Colombia's government implements austerity measures to reduce debt, leading to cuts in social programs and increased poverty levels. This triggers protests from citizens demanding the reversal of these policies. These protests escalate into nationwide demonstrations, potentially disrupting economic activity. * Significant increase in public protests against government policies. * Media coverage highlighting rising unemployment rates and declining living standards. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The Colombian government focuses on finding a balance between debt reduction and social programs, implementing targeted reforms to increase economic growth while maintaining essential services. This approach leads to a gradual improvement in poverty levels without drastic ch (52% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Colombia's government implements austerity measures to reduce debt, leading to cuts in social programs and increased poverty levels. This triggers protests from citizens demanding the reversal of these policies. These protests escalate into nationwide demonstrations, potentially disrupting economic activity. * Significant increase in public protests against government policies. * Media coverage highlighting rising unemployment rates and declining living standards. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The Colombian government focuses on finding a balance between debt reduction and social programs, implementing targeted reforms to increase economic growth while maintaining essential services. This approach leads to a gradual improvement in poverty levels without drastic ch (19% model probability, not a guarantee)

Colombia’s first left-wing gov’t has reduced poverty, but has pile of debt

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators